honest money and social progress
Why Bitcoin Infrastructure Matters A Great Deal
Rt Hon Steve Baker, FRSA
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introduction
The Dot Com Boom of the 1990s led me out of the Royal Air Force and into software. If I was to be an engineer at a desk not on an airfield, why not be at a desk in the private sector during a boom and make some real money?
The boom promptly turned to bust during my MSc in computer science at Oxford. Friends and I discussed how such a massive misdirection of effort and misallocation of capital could have happened among so many people. One handed me Ludwig von Mises' "The Causes of the Economic Crisis and Other Essays Before and After the Great Depression": I discovered the monetary theory of the trade cycle and Austrian School economics more broadly.
Mises’ work, and Hayek’s less well-known monetary scholarship, provided a coherent and consistent explanation for the misdirection of so much entrepreneurship. Excessively cheap credit, disconnected from real savings, creates the impression that capital is more abundant than is truly the case: the resulting boom must turn to bust.
I soon learned that savings, capital, money, and lending are commonly misunderstood. Savings means prior production plus foregone consumption leading to the availability of real resources. Capital is an expression in monetary terms of the net wealth of the complex of all kinds of capital goods and savings, not a synonym for cash balances. Money functions as a means of exchange, unit of account, and store of value because it is a community’s most saleable good. Banks today do not lend out savings, whether with a fractional reserve or not; they lend money into existence as bank credit. And banks certainly cannot conjure capital goods into existence by extending credit.
The implications are profound and yet I have found that bankers and their regulators commonly do not know how most money is created by banks making loans. The Bank of England spells it out in its paper “Money Creation in the Modern Economy”. Ignorance abounds even where it ought not. And where there are experts in the field, they frequently disagree fiercely on often basic details. Alas, that money is so misunderstood and yet so fundamental to a society whose survival and flourishing turns on the division of labour, which can only be coordinated by prices, profit and loss.
In the run up to the Global Financial Crisis of 2008, I was a software architect at Lehman Brothers. Record quarter after record quarter turned to bust. I understood what had happened after still more years of artificially cheap credit, amongst other factors, in large part intended to address the previous bust. I reached out to Toby Baxendale and Dr Anthony Evans and we founded The Cobden Centre, “for honest money and social progress”. Not long after, I was elected to Parliament and in due course the Treasury Select Committee, which scrutinises the Bank of England and other institutions.
In my maiden speech in the House of Commons, I championed the principles of honest money, critiquing those interventionist policies which lead to so much waste, misery and injustice. In 2014, I led a debate in the Commons titled, “Money creation and society” in which I mentioned the “spontaneous emergence of alternative moneys like Bitcoin”. Working with the Cobden Centre, I have contributed to a documentary and co-authored a book.
While I am certainly better known for my campaigns on Brexit, Covid, and the Cost of Net Zero, my work on monetary issues is longer-standing and, I believe, ultimately substantially more important: money is a foundation of our civilization.
the situation
we face
Today, we confront a daunting economic situation characterised by soaring government spending and stagnant revenues, a trend highlighted in the Office for Budget Responsibility's (OBR) fiscal risks and sustainability report(1). The OBR projects that public finances are on an unsustainable path. Government spending on pensions, healthcare, education and social care is set to place total expenditure vastly beyond revenues, potentially leading to severe cuts or a spiralling debt crisis.
the problem in a nutshell: tax and spend
projected total government revenue and spending
source: ONS, OBR
the problem in a nutshell: debt
projections for public sector net debt
source: OBR
public sector net debt sensitivity to productivity growth assumptions
sensitivity to productivity
source: OBR
Taxes are at their practical limit, as identified by economist David B Smith in a paper for Politeia and illustrated by the TaxPayers’ Alliance(2). Government can only do damage by raising taxes from here.
taxes
national account taxes as a share of GDP, 1948 to 2027-28 (per cent)
source: Tax Payer Alliance
ratios of UK general government expenditure and private expenditure to UK GDP at factor cost with implied March 2012 Budget forecasts for 2012 to 2016
the growth of the state
source: Tax Payer Alliance
Where are governments to go when they can neither tax nor borrow to fund their spending? Currency debasement: inflation risking monetary stability.
It is a situation forecast by the Bank for International Settlements in 2010 in their paper, “The future of public debt: prospects and implications”,[3] to which I referred in a 2011 speech on pensions. They wrote,
Since the start of the [2008 global] financial crisis, industrial country public debt levels have increased dramatically. And they are set to continue rising for the foreseeable future. A number of countries face the prospect of large and rising future costs related to the ageing of their populations. In this paper, we examine what current fiscal policy and expected future age-related spending imply for the path of debt/GDP ratios over the next several decades. Our projections of public debt ratios lead us to conclude that the path pursued by fiscal authorities in a number of industrial countries is unsustainable. Drastic measures are necessary to check the rapid growth of current and future liabilities of governments and reduce their adverse consequences for long-term growth and monetary stability.
In concluding, the BIS identified the risk of a major inflation as governments attempt to deal with liabilities they cannot honestly fund through tax:
Finally, looming long-term fiscal imbalances pose significant risk to the prospects for future monetary stability. We describe two channels through which unstable debt dynamics could lead to higher inflation: direct debt monetisation, and the temptation to reduce the real value of government debt through higher inflation. Given the current institutional setting of monetary policy, both risks are clearly limited, at least for now.
Unfortunately, governments have relied heavily on currency debasement since the end of Bretton Woods in 1971. Charts of inflation since 1750 provided in the paper “Consumer Price Inflation since 1750”[4] by the Office for National Statistics and House of Commons Library are stark.
the traditional solution: debasement
composite price index 1750 to 2003, January 1976 = 100 (linear scale)
composite price index 1750 to 2003, January 1974 = 100 (log scale)
Source: consumer price inflation since 1750, Office of National Statistics, House of Commons Library
Quantitative Easing following the financial crisis can only have deepened the distortions inherent in interventionist monetary policy. The OBR’s Commentary on the Public Sector Finances, December 2020 (5) is one of several which vividly illustrates that the Government did not borrow savings to build a bridge through lockdowns and restrictions: the bonds were bought from the market by the Bank of England with new money.
Source: BoE, DMO, OBR
All this means we face a grave situation in our lifetimes: either or both of a massive default on the obligations of the developed welfare states or a massive inflation risking currency collapse. And one would think at some point these massive economic distortions would unwind when reality catches up with the bubble. When might it happen?
The Government Actuary’s audit of the National Insurance Fund forecasts that the fund will be exhausted by 2043-44. State spending washes through the Fund: it is not a sovereign wealth fund containing people’s National Insurance Contributions, prudently invested for their old age. No, NIC were spent pay-as-you-go on other people’s benefits. But the fund still needs to remain above zero.(6)
projected fund balance 2020-2021 to 2085-2086
Source: GAD
Any conclusion drawn from these data and projections will be contested but it seems probable that the UK and other welfare states will be hard into default in about 20 years. We do not have long to arrange an affordable social system which works, together with sound money to accompany it.
the importance of sound money to the justice of market processes
The importance of a social safety net which works is obvious. The consequences of one which is chronically unaffordable should now be heaving into view. The importance of sound money to a just and equitable market economy deserves further elaboration.
In the Economic Consequences of the Peace, Keynes wrote,
Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the capitalist system was to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. By this method they not only confiscate, but they confiscate arbitrarily; and, while the process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some. The sight of this arbitrary rearrangement of riches strikes not only at security, but at confidence in the equity of the existing distribution of wealth.
While the attribution to Lenin is dubious at best, Keynes at least understood the arcane power of debauching the currency. Alas that today it is roundly ignored.
The concept of sound money is not just an economic ideal but a fundamental requirement for the justice of voluntary exchange in free markets. A currency which retains a stable value over time provides a reliable medium of exchange, a stable unit of account, and a secure store of value. These aspects of money are essential to the functioning of free markets: the exchange of value for value preserves the integrity of economic transactions, respects property rights and encourages voluntary exchange.
Justice in economic transactions hinges on the idea that participants have access to fair information and operate under consistent rules. When the value of money is manipulated – whether through inflationary monetary policies, artificial interest rates, or unbacked credit expansion – economic calculations are distorted. Prices no longer reflect the true state of supply and demand, leading to misallocation of resources and unjust exchanges.
The distortions caused by inflationary money create economic inequality in a way that violates the principles of justice. When the money supply is expanded, the initial recipients of new money – typically banks, large corporations, and government entities – benefit at the expense of ordinary people. This process, known as the Cantillon Effect, leads to an arbitrary redistribution of wealth. Those with early access to new money can purchase assets before prices rise, while wage earners and savers, whose incomes adjust slowly, suffer from reduced purchasing power. Such hidden redistribution is a form of covert taxation that undermines the justice of market processes and erodes trust in the economic system.
Sound money is also crucial for protecting property rights, which are a cornerstone of a just market order. When the currency is debased, the value of people's savings and investments is confiscated without their consent, seizing part of the value they created for others for which they were justly rewarded. In contrast, a system of sound money – such as one based on a commodity standard like gold or in due course a synthetic commodity money like Bitcoin – ensures that individuals retain control over the value they create and the wealth they accumulate.
The justice of market processes also depends on enabling accurate economic calculation. In a free market, prices are signals that coordinate the actions of countless individuals. These prices reflect underlying realities such as consumer preferences, resource availability, and production costs. When money is unsound, prices lose their usefulness as information: they are distorted by artificial credit conditions and QE. This undermines the ability of businesses and consumers to make well-informed decisions about production, investment, and consumption.
Monetary stability fosters intergenerational justice by preserving the long-term value of savings and investments. Unsound monetary policies will result in intergenerational wealth transfer, where the costs of today’s fiscal and monetary irresponsibility are borne by future generations. When governments accumulate debt and finance deficits through inflation, they impose a burden on future taxpayers who will have to bear the cost of repayment, with interest. This violates a principle of intergenerational justice: each generation should bear the costs of its own consumption and not pass them on to the next.
Furthermore, sound money supports social cohesion by reducing the likelihood of economic crises that can foster social unrest. Historically, periods of monetary instability have been accompanied by social turmoil and political radicalism, as citizens lose faith in the social and economic system and the institutions that govern them. A stable money helps to maintain the trust that underpins social and economic cooperation, thereby contributing to a more equitable and harmonious society.
The principles of sound money are inseparable from the justice of market processes and the ethics of voluntary exchange. By ensuring stable value, protecting property rights, enabling accurate economic calculation, and supporting intergenerational equity, sound money fosters a fair and prosperous economic order. As we face an era of unprecedented debt and monetary challenges, embracing sound money is not just an economic necessity but a moral imperative.
how the future is likely to evolve
Public choice theory indicates why an orderly resolution to this gathering crisis is unlikely. Politicians in democratic systems face strong incentives to avoid unpopular measures, such as substantial cuts to spending on pensions, welfare, healthcare, and education. These sectors make up the bulk of government expenditure and are acutely politically sensitive. Consequently, instead of making meaningful cuts, politicians often opt for measures like borrowing or money creation, deferring the costs to future generations. The Conservatives’ recent refusal to support the Labour Government’s relatively modest policy of cutting Winter Fuel Payments for better-off pensioners is a case in point.
Given these dynamics, a significant default on public obligations appears inevitable over the next 20 years or so. Historical precedents show that defaults occur either explicitly, through debt restructuring, or implicitly, through sustained inflation eroding the real value of debt. The extent to which UK bonds are index-linked makes that more difficult and points to the use of more QE: coupon payments on bonds held by the Bank flow back to the Treasury.
The trajectory of policy over the last few decades, in which economic and health emergencies have been met with credit expansion and QE, suggests that a monetary catastrophe is a real possibility and not just in the UK but across the world.
the scale of
economic crisis
and potential consequences
My Cobden Centre monograph with Max Rangeley set out that we are in the biggest economic bubble in history. That claim follows remarks by the then Chief Economist of the Bank of England Andy Haldane, who told the Treasury Select Committee in 2013,
“We’ve intentionally blown the biggest government bond bubble in history. We need to be vigilant to the consequences of that bubble deflating more quickly than we might otherwise have wanted.”
Astronomical levels of global debt and asset price inflation suggest significant economic discoordination, comparable to the Great Depression or greater.
The consequences of what appears to be an inevitable bust on an historically unprecedented scale are fearsome to imagine.
the emergence
and progress of
central bank
digital currencies
Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) have been proposed as a new tool for monetary policy. Proponents argue that CBDCs offer benefits such as increased financial inclusion, efficient payment systems, and improved monetary control, including keeping the state in the business of providing the public with money as the use of cash declines.
However, there are significant concerns about privacy, state control, and the potential for extreme financial repression. Notwithstanding promises of safeguards, CBDCs could allow governments to implement negative interest rates directly or restrict the use of money to control public activity during crises. One would have to be blind to the use of power during the coronavirus pandemic to think it unlikely panicking states would seize ever greater control of the public’s lives. It is with good reason that the Human Rights Foundation makes publicly available its “CBDC Tracker” to raise awareness of these issues.
Public choice suggests that in a monetary catastrophe, states would turn to CBDCs to maintain their control over the monetary system. The incentives to expand surveillance and control over everyone’s financial transactions seem likely to outweigh considerations of privacy and liberty, leading to a system where economic freedom is significantly curtailed.
Bitcoin
As an alternative to state-controlled money, Bitcoin is emerging as a "synthetic commodity money," as characterised by the economist George Selgin. It combines some characteristics of commodity money such as limited supply with the convenience of digital currency.
Bitcoin's decentralised nature and fixed supply make it an appealing hedge against fiat inflation and state overreach. Selgin argues that Bitcoin is not a money because “it is not generally accepted”. The argument meets with fierce controversy and yet it seems unanswerable. Bitcoin is not yet a generally accepted medium of exchange and therefore it is not yet a money.
However, the history of Bitcoin's adoption and development indicates that its role in the financial ecosystem is now a fact of life. Bitcoin’s growing acceptance, increased market capitalization and widespread integration into financial services mean that Bitcoin should be expected to be permanent, even as its long-term role as money remains contested by financial sector professionals and monetary scholars.
Bitcoin has moved beyond arguments over definitions, something Axiom cofounder Allen Farrington has jokingly dubbed “Semantics Therefore Reality.” All of Bitcoin’s demonstrable success to date is founded on the belief of its growing base of users that it is, or at the very least will be, superior money to the alternatives. I take this seriously, not least because I was clearly wrong about the longevity of Bitcoin some years ago. And state-provided money’s flaws are increasingly unavoidable.
the importance
of a grassroots return
to sound money
The rise of private sector initiatives such as Bitcoin and projects to bring gold back into the payment system offer a potential grassroots path back to sound money. Travelling down that path is now not only vital but urgent.
Our civilisation rests on the division of labour among billions of people, mediated by money and directed by prices, profit and loss. The sorry history of planned economies and socialism should prove to all but the most dogmatic ideologue that not only is there no alternative to the free-market system but that it works very well to raise the prosperity of the great body of the public everywhere the system is allowed to flourish and expand.
The state cannot be trusted either to avoid the coming default on public services, debt and the value of fiat money or to reform the monetary system in a way consistent with a free society. It seems doubtful that any safeguards around CBDC would survive an activist government in a crisis. Any reasonable observer of the purportedly liberal government of Canada during the pandemic would be naïve indeed to think otherwise.
Thanks to the internet and financial technology, we now have emergent private sector money. Glint Pay[7] and competitors like Goldmoney[8] are reinserting gold into the present payment system. Bitcoin provides an emergent synthetic commodity money outside that infrastructure.
For these emergent private sector monies to thrive and to survive a future activist state, it is crucial to develop and entrench the necessary infrastructure so that it is as futile to attempt to ban them as attempting to ban the Internet itself.
That will require massive private investment in payments tooling, capital markets integrations, energy assets and more. Most importantly, there is an imperative for robust, free and open-source software which enables Bitcoin to function to exactly as sovereign and decentralised an extent as its users desire.
The proliferation of such work represents a hopeful development towards restoring market sovereignty over money. It could be an essential component of carrying civilisation through what now appears an inevitable, near-global default in our lifetimes.
conclusion
We have behind us a century of transformation from the laissez-faire liberal political economy which prevailed under the Gold Standard before World War I to the unaffordable, failing social democracy of today. That system is now running into the limits of debt, currency debasement, and capital consumption.
The unprecedented economic crisis we face is driven by unsustainable fiscal policies, immense monetary expansion and structural demographic change. The principles of sound money, long abandoned, must be revived to safeguard all our futures.
While governments are likely to avoid substantial reform, the progress made privately offers hope. By building the infrastructure of sound money, investors and entrepreneurs can foster a more stable and free economic system, ultimately creating a foundation for sustainable, just and inclusive prosperity.
This firm belief is why I am happy to announce that I have decided to join Axiom as an advisor. I believe their work will prove to be an invaluable part of that journey.
end notes
(1) OBR charts from Fiscal Risks and Sustainability, September 2024, available: https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Fiscal-risks-and-sustainability-report-September-2024.pdf
(2) PA charts from Taxes, Growth, and the Tax Burden, TaxPayers’ Alliance, available: https://assets.nationbuilder.com/taxpayersalliance/pages/17979/attachments/original/1706175016/Taxes__growth_and_the_tax_burden.pdf?1706175016, and The Single Income Tax, TaxPayers’ Alliance, available: https://www.yumpu.com/en/document/read/18276466/the-single-income-tax-the-2020-tax-commission
(3) The Future of Public Debt, Prospects and Implications, Stephen G Cecchetti, M S Mohanty and Fabrizio Zampolli, available: https://www.bis.org/publ/othp09.pdf
(4) Consumer Price Inflation Since 1750, Jim O’Donoghue, Louise Golding, Grahame Allen, available: https://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/ukgwa/20160105160709/http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/economic-trends--discontinued-/no--604--march-2004/consumer-price-inflation-since-1750.pdf
(5) OBR chart from Commentary on the Public Sector Finances, December 2020, OBR, available: https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/January-2021-PSF-Commentary.pdf
(6) GAD chart from Government Actuary’s Quinquennial Review of the National Insurance Fund as at April 2020, available: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/62331075e90e070a53f689b0/QR_2020_Report_17_Mar_2022.pdf
(7) https://glintpay.com – full disclosure, I am a minor shareholder in Glint Pay.